How Milo works

Last updated November 11, 2026

Other trackers tell you what's happening. Milo tells you what to do. This page lays out how he does it: every source he reads, the rules he follows, where AI comes in and where he can be wrong.

What he does that trackers don't

• He makes his own call. A tracker repeats the time the airline posts. Milo works out when your flight can realistically leave and shows both times side by side when they differ.
• He follows the plane. Most delays start with the aircraft that is supposed to fly you. Milo tracks that plane, the flight before it and its last three days.
• He tells you the next move. Backup flights, what to say at the desk, what you may be owed and whether a rebooking the airline offers is any good.
• He keeps score. Every prediction is logged against what happened, in public.

Where his information comes from

Milo reads these sources directly. Flight predictions come only from flight, FAA and weather data. News is used for context and advice and never changes a forecast time. He does not use social media or other trackers.

• FlightAware. Flight schedules, live status, gates, the incoming plane, tail numbers and each plane's recent flights. A lookup is reused for two minutes.
• FAA airport status. Ground stops, delay programs, closures and arrival or departure delays at each airport. Refreshed every two minutes.
• FAA daily operations plan. What air traffic managers expect later in the day, such as a ground stop that is "possible after 3 p.m." Refreshed every five minutes.
• Aviation Weather Center. Current conditions and the official airport forecast at both ends of your trip, plus active thunderstorm warnings, including ones lying across your route.
• National Weather Service. Warnings and watches for winter storms, ice, hurricanes, high wind, severe thunderstorms and dense fog. US airports only for now.
• TSA. Typical security wait times by airport, day and hour. These are historical averages, not a live count of the line.
• Google Maps. Live traffic and transit times, only when you ask when to leave.
• US Department of Transportation. The refund rules, the tarmac delay rules and what each airline has promised in writing for delays and cancellations.
• Airline logos. Loaded from a public logo image service. They are shown for recognition only.
• Contrail's reporting. Milo reads the headlines and summaries Contrail publishes, refreshed every 10 minutes. When a recent story mentions your airline or airport, he links to it under the card. In conversation he treats Contrail as his own newsroom and says "Contrail reports".
• The web. When you ask about something outside the flight data, such as a strike, a travel waiver or an airline policy, and Contrail has not covered it, the AI can search the web. It is told to prefer airline travel alert pages, the FAA, the DOT, the TSA and major news outlets, to name its source and to say "reportedly" for anything that is not from an official page. Sources appear as buttons under the answer. This is new and may not be switched on for every answer.
• Contrail's editor. Short notes posted by Contrail's newsroom when something outside the data matters, such as a staffing shortage or a strike. Milo says when a note comes from the editor.

How he judges a flight

For a flight that has not left, Milo checks each signal below. Each one can raise the risk to "Some risk" or "High risk". The highest one wins.

• The delay the airline already shows. 15 minutes or more raises the risk. 45 or more makes it high.
• The incoming plane. He takes when your plane is due in, adds the time it needs at the gate and compares that with your departure time. If the result is 15 minutes or more late, he says so.
• Time at the gate. He assumes about 25 minutes for a regional jet, 35 for a standard jet and 70 for a wide-body jet. These are working estimates, not airline figures.
• One plane further back. If your plane has not left for you yet, he checks the flight before it too. A delay there can reach you hours later.
• A plane that just arrived. A plane at the gate is not the same as a plane that is ready. If it pulled in too late to turn around, he counts that.
• Plane swaps. He remembers which aircraft was assigned to your flight. If the airline changes it, he checks whether the new one can make the posted time.
• The plane's last three days. Cancellations, diversions and delays that began at the gate after the plane had arrived on time. Repeated trouble with one aircraft may point to the plane itself. Milo cannot see maintenance records, so he says "may".
• The FAA at both airports. A ground stop or closure at your destination, a delay program and long arrival or departure delays all raise the risk.
• The FAA's plan for later. Trouble the FAA expects at either airport later in the day.
• Weather. Storms, low visibility, strong gusts or snow in the forecast around when you leave or land, official warnings at either airport and thunderstorms across the route.
• The flight's track record. How often this flight number ran 15 minutes or more late or was canceled on this route in recent days. Late 60% of the time or more raises the risk.
• FAA takeoff slots (experimental). When the FAA is metering an airport, it assigns affected flights a takeoff time. Milo tries to look up your flight's slot, which can show a delay before the airline posts it. This is new and may not return anything yet.
• A flight that is overdue. Ten minutes past its time and still at the gate with no new time posted.

His forecast time

Milo turns those signals into one expected departure time: the latest time any of them points to, rounded to five minutes. When that is at least 15 minutes later than what the airline shows, the card puts the two side by side as "The airline" and "Milo".

He always says "likely" and never "will". Airlines swap planes and make up time, and a forecast can miss.

Where AI comes in

The rules above are plain arithmetic. They do not use AI and they give the same answer every time. AI is used in four places:

• Conversation. When you ask a question in your own words, an AI model reads it, looks up what it needs with the same tools described on this page and answers in Milo's voice.
• "My read". On a flight that has not left, the AI gets the same signals as the rules and gives a second opinion in a sentence or two. It can lean up to 30 minutes either way and has to say why. It does not change the forecast time in the box.
• Outside events. The AI reads Contrail's headlines and can search the web, as described above. Web results can be wrong or out of date, which is why Milo names the source.
• Reading a confirmation. If you paste an airline confirmation, the AI pulls out the flight numbers and dates.

The AI model is made by OpenAI or Anthropic. It can misread a question or state something wrong, which is why the cards show the underlying data and every delay answer ends with "confirm with your airline".

What is new and still being proven

These parts were added recently and have not yet been checked against many real flights: looking two planes back, the three-day aircraft history, plane-swap detection, "My read", the FAA takeoff-slot lookup, Contrail story matching and web search. Treat them as early signals.

Where he can be wrong

• He covers the US and Canada. Flights elsewhere may show limited information.
• Live data reaches about two days ahead. For a flight further out, he shows how that flight number usually runs. That is not the airline's schedule for your day.
• He cannot see inside the airline. Crew scheduling, maintenance decisions and spare aircraft are invisible to him.
• Connection advice is general. His guidance on layover times uses general estimates for each airport, not each airline's official minimums.
• Rights and refunds. What he says about refunds and airline promises is general information, not legal advice. The airline promises come from the DOT's published list as of December 2024 and airlines change them.

His track record

Milo logs each prediction and what happened to the flight. You can see the results, good and bad, on the accuracy page.

Your information

What Milo remembers about you, who else sees it and how to erase it is on the privacy page.

Who makes Milo

Milo is made by Contrail, an aviation news site. He is free to use. Airlines and airports do not pay to appear or to change what he says. Milo links to Contrail's stories because Contrail makes him.